Despite the return to near-record profitability at many financial services firms, most executives would probably prefer to put 2009 behind them and start fresh in 2010. After all, isn't that what the New Year is all about -- turning the page on the prior year and looking forward to something better?

The problem is that the economy is sending mixed signals. In 2009 we knew what to expect -- job losses, a painfully weak economy and more bank failures. As the industry looks to 2010, however, record banking profits are likely to be accompanied by job losses, a painfully weak economy and more bank failures.

So how do CIOs finalize 2010 strategic IT plans when some economists are predicting a return to growth and other experts warn that a jobless recovery and sluggish business spending will postpone a serious rebound until 2011? I certainly don't know what to expect -- except that most 2010 budgets will be based on less-than-certain assumptions.

While the editors at Wall Street & Technology aren't brave (or foolish) enough to try to predict which way the economy will move next year, we are confident (perhaps foolishly) enough in our technology predictions to publish our 2010 Capital Markets Outlook. This year's Outlook highlights 10 topics that will demand the attention of CIOs next year. There are four topics for 2010 -- risk management, regulation, credit derivatives clearing and social networking -- that we also deemed priorities for 2009. Two topics -- risk management and OTC derivatives -- also made our list in 2008. In fact risk management has been one of the priorities we have highlighted since 2005, though most agree that a lot of work still needs to be done (see: credit crisis).

One of the largest unknowns heading into 2010 is what will happen with regulatory reform. Six of the 2010 Outlook's 10 topics -- high-frequency trading, dark pools, hedge fund automation, risk modeling, OTC derivatives clearing and regulatory reporting -- are waiting for some sort of regulatory clarification. Until the final regulations take shape, firms will operate with a wait-and-see approach.

Even when the regulations are finalized, however, 2010 budgets and planning still will depend on a stable global financial market. I'm not sure if the bull market will continue through 2010 or if the recovery will continue to be jobless. But I would be willing to bet that at this time next year we'll still be discussing how firms can improve risk management procedures and technology. Place your bets, anyone?